ASEAN5 Outlook Up as Exports Drive Growth
Diverse Concerns as Trump Risks Muted
Economists revised their 2017 growth forecast for major Southeast Asian countries upward, reflecting stronger-than-expected exports of electronic goods and spillover effects on domestic economies. The Indian economy is expected to return to a rapid growth track in 2018/19 after experiencing a temporary slowdown in 2017. Economists now recognize a more diverse array of risks as concerns over U.S. President Trump's policies have become less pressing.
The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asian Review. (October 11, 2017)
◆ Main points of the survey
- The weighted average of growth forecasts for the ASEAN5 in 2017 was revised upward from the previous survey by 0.2 points to 4.8%, as figures for Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand were up. Increased exports and their spillover effects on domestic consumption and investment are supporting this growth. Indonesia’s growth forecast remains at 5.2%.
- The growth estimate for India in 2017/18 was revised downward by 0.4 points to 7.0% due to a slowdown in the April-June period attributed to temporary stagnation before the introduction of the new tax system. Figures are expected to rebound to over 7.6% for 2018/19 and 2019/20.
- Economists see protectionism and other “Trump-related” risks as less urgent than before. Concerns now vary by economy, extending to market risks, economic reforms, and terrorism.
◆ List of survey respondents
Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, chairman, Center for Information and Development Studies; Wisnu Wardana, economist, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia
Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Wan Suhaimie Saidie, head, economics department, Kenanga Investment Bank
Philippines: Alvin Ang, professor, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan L. Ravelas, chief market strategist, BDO Unibank; Pauline May Ann E. Revillas, research analyst, Metropolitan Bank & Trust; Joey Cuyegkeng, senior economist, ING Bank; Angelo Taningco, economist, Security Bank
Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Center for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences; Yuma Tsuchiya, senior economist, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
Thailand: Phacharaphot Nuntramas, senior vice president, Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center; Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, head of research group, Kasikorn Research Center; Thammarat Kittisiripat, economist, KT Zmico Securities; Somprawin Manprasert, chief economist, Bank of Ayudhya
India: Kentaro Konishi, president and CEO, Daiwa Capital Markets; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Sonal Varma, chief India economist, Nomura India; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief strategist & head of reserch, India, Mizuho Bank Limited
For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; David Fernandez, chief Asia-Pacific economist, Barclays Bank; Goldman Sachs; HSBC
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