Outlooks Continue to Fall for ASEAN, India
Trade War Felt as Market, Geopolitical Risks Loom
Outlooks for Asian economies were once again revised downward as the negative consequences of the U.S.-China trade war, such as decreasing trade, have spread throughout the region. The 2019 growth forecast for the ASEAN5 was 4.1%, marking the fifth consecutive downward revision since the September 2018 survey. The growth projection for India in fiscal 2019/20 was revised down by 0.8 points to 6.1%, the fourth consecutive downward revision of this figure. In addition to U.S.-China tensions, economists are monitoring capital outflows and other market-related risks amid global financial easing. Many are following developments in the Middle East with great concern following the Saudi oil attack.
The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asian Review. (October 8, 2019)
◆ Main points of the survey
- The weighted average of growth forecasts for the ASEAN5 in 2019 was 4.1%, revised downward by 0.2 points from the June survey. This marks the fifth consecutive downward revision. The figure is 0.7 points lower that the growth rate achieved in 2018.
- 2019 projections were lowered for Singapore and Thailand due largely to a decrease in exports. The outlook was also lowered for the Philippines as capital investment slowed in the first half. The forecast was unchanged for Indonesia and raised for Malaysia.
- The growth projection for India for fiscal 2019/20 was 6.1%, down by 0.8 points from the previous survey. This marks the fourth consecutive downward revision since the December 2018 survey. The forecast reflects global economic slowdown and domestic financial troubles.
- “U.S.-China tensions” remained top risk in all nations except for the Philippines, where infrastructure ranks highest. Economists’ attention also turned to capital outflow and oil prices.
◆ List of survey respondents
Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research department, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, senior fellow, The Habibie Center; Wisnu Wardana, economist, Bank Danamon Indonesia
Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, senior economist, RHB Research Institute; Wan Suhaimie bin Wan Mohd Saidie, head, economic research, Kenanga Investment Bank; Manokaran Mottain, chief economist, Alliance Bank
Philippines: Alvin Ang , director, Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist, BDO Unibank Inc.; Jojo Gonzales, managing director, Philippine Equity Partners Inc.; Nicholas Mapa, senior economist, ING Bank Philippines; Emilio S. Neri Jr., vice president and lead economist, Bank of the Philippine Islands; Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of the Philippines
Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Centre for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences; Yuma Tsuchiya, senior economist, MUFG Bank, Ltd.
Thailand: Panundorn Aruneeniramarn, assistant vice president, Siam Commercial Bank – Economic Intelligence Center; Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, assistance managing director, Kasikorn Research Center; Somprawin Manprasert, head of research division and chief economist , Bank of Ayudhya PCL; Amonthep Chawla, head of research, CIMB Thai Bank; Naris Sathapholdeja, head of TMB analytics, TMB Bank PCL
India: Punit Srivastava, head of research, Daiwa Capital Markets India; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Sonal Varma, India chief economist, Nomura India; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief economist, National Stock Exchange of India; Shekhar Shah, director-general, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)
For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; Rahul Bajoria, director, regional economist, Barclays Bank; Donald Hanna, group chief economist, CIMB Group; Debapriya Mukherjee, principal economist, asia paciffic IHS Markit
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