Asia Consensus Survey JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies （September 2023 issue /2023～2025）

China Slowdown a Cause for Concern

El Niño Influences Forecasts; One More Fed Hike on the Horizon

Project Leader：Masashi UEHARA: Principal Economist
Project Leader：Kenji YUASA: Lead Economist

2023/10/02

The Japan Center for Economic Research and Nikkei conducted the thirty-first quarterly consensus survey on Asian economies from September 1 to 21, asking about the economic outlook for 2023-2025. It collected 37 answers from economists and analysts in the five largest members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—and in India.

The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asia. (September 29, 2023)

PDFConsensus September 2023 Survey Full Text

AsiaSurvey202209-table-ENG

◆ Main points of the survey

The projected economic growth rate for the five ASEAN countries in 2023 has been revised to 3.9%, down 0.3 points from the previous survey. This is the second consecutive survey to see downward revisions. Four ASEAN countries, with Indonesia the exception, took a cautious view due to concerns about a decline in external demand. Forecasts have been revised downward for 2024 and 2025, and there is a growing sense of uncertainty about the future.
India’s growth rate forecast for FY2023/24 has been revised to 6.2%, up by 0.1 points. However, crop failures and soaring food prices due to abnormal weather caused by El Niño are major concerns.
Three out of the six countries cited “China’s economic slowdown” as the leading risk factor. In addition to a decline in exports to China, some economists report that a decline in investment and tourism from China could impede their own economic growth.

◆ List of survey respondents

Indonesia: Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research department, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, senior fellow, The Habibie Center; Josua Pardede, chief economist, Permata Bank;

Malaysia: Wan Suhaimie bin Wan Mohd Saidie, head, economic research, Kenanga Investment Bank; Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, senior economist, KAF Research; Mohd Sedek Jantan, head of wealth research & advisory, UOB Kay Hian Securities

Philippines: Ina Judith Clabio, research and business analytics officer, Metrobank; Domini Velasquez, chief economist, China Banking Corporation; Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of the Philippines; Jojo Gonzales, managing director, Philippine Equity Partners; Nicholas Mapa, senior economist, ING Bank Philippines

Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Centre for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences; Song Seng Wun, director, CIMB Bank; Alvin Liew, senior economist, UOB Group

Thailand: Poonyawat Sreesing, senior economist, Siam Commercial Bank – Economic Intelligence Center; Lalita Thienprasiddhi, senior resercher, Kasikorn Research Center; Krungsri Research Team, Bank of Ayudhya; Amonthep Chawla, head of research, CIMB Thai Bank

India: Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief economist, National Stock Exchange of India; Aurodeep Nandi, India economist, Nomura India; Bidisha Ganguly, chief economist, Confederation of Indian Industry; Rahul Bajoria, director, regional economist, Barclays Bank; Anshuman Khanna, assistant secretary general, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI)

For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, chief economist, Nomura Singapore; Suhaimi Ilias, chief economist, Maybank Investment Banking Group; Brian Tan, Regional economist, VP, Barclays Bank, Singapore; Shreya Sodhani, regional economist, Barclays Bank, Singapore

2023/10/02