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Recession Indicator

July: The Recession Indicator moved up to 19.6%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in two months

Yoshiki Shimoda
  Economist

2021/09/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) rose to 19.6% from the previous month (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data fell for the first time in two months due to deteriorations in the growth of money stock (M2), inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, sales forecast of small businesses, and among others. Although, the recession probability still remains the level below 67% which is a reference point of signaling a recession, consumer confidence in August got worse because of a rapid increase in the number of people infected with COVID-19, and economic outlook is unpredictable.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (July 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/11/10

September: The Recession Indicator rose to 75.8%

- Deterioration of production pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/10/11

August: The Recession Indicator fell to 54.9%

- Improvement of consumer confidence pushed up the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator rose to 84.7%

- Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/08/09

June: The Recession Indicator rose to 71.1%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/07/08

May: The Recession Indicator rose to 45.2%

- Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.

Yoshiki Shimoda