Back to List
Recession Indicator

July: The Recession Indicator rose to 84.7%

- Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda
  Economist

2022/09/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan in July released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) rose to 84.7% from 83.8% on revised retroactivity value in June (Figure 1). Since the Leading Index as the underlying data fell for three consecutive months, due to deteriorating in consumer confidence, the inventory ratio of final demand goods and others. The Recession Indicator in July remained above 67%, which is a reference point of signaling recession. The main factor for increase in the Recession Indicator in July was the deterioration in consumer confidence in same month due to price increase for daily necessities and re-spread of COVID-19. Consumer confidence in August improved for the first time in three months due to summer vacation without COVID-19 restrictions.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (July 2022)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator rose to 84.7%

- Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/08/09

June: The Recession Indicator rose to 71.1%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/07/08

May: The Recession Indicator rose to 45.2%

- Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/06/08

April: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.9%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/05/12

March: The Recession Indicator fell to 25.8%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Yoshiki Shimoda