June: The Recession Indicator fell to 5.7%

－ The Leading Index rose for the first time in two months

Takashi MIYAZAKI

  Senior Economist

2021/08/10

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 5.7% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for the first time in two months due to improvements in consumer confidence, new job offers, inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, and among others, and the recession probability remains the level significantly below 67%, which is a reference point of signaling a recession. However, a state of emergency has been declared in Tokyo and other prefectures since July, and the number of newly infected people is increasing rapidly, so economic outlook is highly uncertain.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (June 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.