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Recession Indicator

<Reference value>June: The Recession Indicator marks 24%

- The Leading Index recorded the largest ever rise

  Senior Economist


  The Recession Indicator (reference value*) in June 2020 marks 24.0% (Figure 1). The probability declined from last month because the Leading Index as the underlying data of calculation, have risen the largest ever since statistics have started, due to improvements in consumer confidence, inventory ratio of final demand goods, and growth in money stock (M2), and others. On July 30, the Cabinet Office tentatively assigned October 2018 as the "peak" in the expansion phase that began in December 2012. According to the ESP forecast released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER), the number of economists responding that the "trough" is May 2020 increase. Thus, the behavior of the recession probability suggests that the economy has got out of a recession, prior to the trend of the real economy.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (June 2020, Reference value)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The Recession Indicator has been calculated as a reference value since the release in April 2020. Please click here for more details.


September: The Recession Indicator rose sharply to 71.0%

- The recession probability exceeds the reference point

Yoshiki Shimoda


August: The Recession Indicator moved up to 35.7%

- The Leading Index fell for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda


July: The Recession Indicator moved up to 19.6%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in two months

Yoshiki Shimoda


June: The Recession Indicator fell to 5.7%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in two months



May: The Recession Indicator moved up to 22.1%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in a year