＜Reference value＞June: The Recession Indicator marks 24%
－ The Leading Index recorded the largest ever rise
The Recession Indicator (reference value*) in June 2020 marks 24.0% (Figure 1). The probability declined from last month because the Leading Index as the underlying data of calculation, have risen the largest ever since statistics have started, due to improvements in consumer confidence, inventory ratio of final demand goods, and growth in money stock (M2), and others. On July 30, the Cabinet Office tentatively assigned October 2018 as the "peak" in the expansion phase that began in December 2012. According to the ESP forecast released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER), the number of economists responding that the "trough" is May 2020 increase. Thus, the behavior of the recession probability suggests that the economy has got out of a recession, prior to the trend of the real economy.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (June 2020, Reference value)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The Recession Indicator has been calculated as a reference value since the release in April 2020. Please click here for more details.
January: The Recession Indicator marks 94.0%
－ The Leading Index is at its lowest level in about two years
December: The Recession Indicator reached 92.3%
－ The highest level since November 2019
November: The Recession Indicator rose to 80.8%
－ "Early warning signal" alarmed again
October: The Recession Indicator fell to 35.3%
－ The Indicator was below the reference point of signaling recession
September: The Recession Indicator rose to 75.8%
－ Deterioration of production pushed down the Leading Index