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Recession Indicator

June: The Recession Indicator rose to 71.1%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed

Yoshiki SHIMODA
  Economist

2022/08/09

  The Recession Indicator for Japan in June released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) rose to 71.1% from 68.8% on revised retroactivity value in May (Figure 1). Since the Leading Index as the underlying data fell for two consecutive months, due to deteriorating in consumer confidence, sales forecast of small businesses and new job offers. The Recession Indicator exceeded two consecutive months, and a warning signal alarmed. The consumer confidence in July got worse after June, because of re-spread of COVID-19 in addition to markup on daily necessities. Therefore, it is not clear whether the probability in July will settle down.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (June 2022)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2023/01/12

November: The Recession Indicator rose to 80.8%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed again

Yoshiki SHIMODA

2022/12/08

October: The Recession Indicator fell to 35.3%

- The Indicator was below the reference point of signaling recession

Yoshiki SHIMODA

2022/11/10

September: The Recession Indicator rose to 75.8%

- Deterioration of production pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki SHIMODA

2022/10/11

August: The Recession Indicator fell to 54.9%

- Improvement of consumer confidence pushed up the Leading Index

Yoshiki SHIMODA

2022/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator rose to 84.7%

- Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki SHIMODA