Back to List
Vision2050 JCER Long-Term Forecast and Policy Proposal (Updated)

Maintain Position as a First-tier Nation

--World Economic Map in 2050
--Establish National Targets to Stabilize Population Decline



This is an integrated report of our long-term forecast and policy proposal project commemorating 50th anniversary of our foundation. It contains two analyses. One is “World Economic Map in 2050” which we drew based on our long-term forecast. We predicted a possible slowing in the Chinese economy, which lacks some of essential institutional properties sustaining economic growth, such as political stability and economic liberalization to promote creative destruction while it stays under the current political regime. The other is our appeal that Japan should establish national targets to halt its population decline to remain as “A First-tier Nation” still in the future. We propose to expand family allowances especially for those who raise second and third children by following France’s example which has succeeded in improving both fertility rates and female labor participation.
(The world long-term forecast has been revised and updated from the previous version released in Dec 2013 to include data for 2012.)


Urgent Policy Proposals

Priority should be given to fighting the virus,not stimulating the economy
-- Direct spending of 11tn yen to protect livelihoods, businesses
-- Action plans based on prolonged infection are essential

主査:Kazumasa IWATA


Accident Cleanup Costs Rising to 35-80 Trillion Yen in 40 Years

Considering the postponing of decommissioning with “Confinement-managing” scenario as a possible option
Urgent need for measures to manage contaminated water

Public Financial Burden of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident


In fiscal 2018, we will revise our long-term macroeconomic forecasts to 2060.


Productivity has not been growing in tandem with increasing PhDs in Japan

- Problem may be rooted in university education or business misapplication
- As imported technology stalls, "self-sufficiency" remains the rule in Japan

Does Japanese research and development contribute to economic growth?


CO2 Emissions Reduction of 70% by 2050 is Possible with the Introduction of an Environmental Tax

- Making the Environment Protection Compatible with Economic Growth is Possible with Structural Economic Reforms
- Tax Revenues of ¥12 Trillion would be needed if fossil fuel prices remain unchanged


Japan’s Non-Manufacturing Sector Must Seek to Utilize AI & IoT Technologies

-- Breaking Away from Existing Operations is Crucial

Moving to an information-oriented society


Accident Cleanup Costs May Rise to 50-70 Trillion Yen

--It's Time to Examine legal liquidation of TEPCO
--Higher Transparency is Needed for the Reasons to Maintaining Nuclear Power

Public Financial Burden of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident