March: The Recession Indicator fell to 25.8%
－ The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months
The Recession Indicator for Japan in March released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) fell to 25.8%, from 33.4% on revised retroactivity value in February (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data rose for the first time in three months, due to improve in commodity price index, new job offers, the inventory ratio of final demand goods and others. In March, the production and employment indicator were improved, the result of lifting pre-emergency measures owing to decreasing the number of COVID-19 patients. However, with the prolonged Russia's invasion of Ukraine and no end insights of surge in resource prices, Economic outlook is uncertain.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (March 2022)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.
－ Aggravated Index of Inventory Ratio of Finished Goods influenced the probability.
－ Deterioration of the employment situation could be a factor.
－ Huge probability reduction contributed by the well-performed indices of an inventory ratio
－ Exceeding the warning level due to the stock pile-up resulting from the dismal foreign demands.
－ The probability almost stayed at the previous month's level.