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Recession Indicator

March: The Recession Indicator fell to 25.8%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Yoshiki Shimoda
  Economist

2022/05/12

  The Recession Indicator for Japan in March released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) fell to 25.8%, from 33.4% on revised retroactivity value in February (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data rose for the first time in three months, due to improve in commodity price index, new job offers, the inventory ratio of final demand goods and others. In March, the production and employment indicator were improved, the result of lifting pre-emergency measures owing to decreasing the number of COVID-19 patients. However, with the prolonged Russia's invasion of Ukraine and no end insights of surge in resource prices, Economic outlook is uncertain.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (March 2022)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/11/10

September: The Recession Indicator rose to 75.8%

- Deterioration of production pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/10/11

August: The Recession Indicator fell to 54.9%

- Improvement of consumer confidence pushed up the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator rose to 84.7%

- Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/08/09

June: The Recession Indicator rose to 71.1%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/07/08

May: The Recession Indicator rose to 45.2%

- Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.

Yoshiki Shimoda