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Recession Indicator

March: The Recession Indicator marks 2.3%

- The Leading Index rose for ten consecutive months

Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist

2021/05/13

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 2.3% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose by 4.3 points from the previous month, due to improvements in new job offers, sales forecast of small businesses, consumer confidence, and others, and the Index rose for ten consecutive months. The recession probability is significantly below 67%, which is a reference point of signaling a recession, as The Leading Index recovered to the highest level since March 2014, just before the consumption tax rate had been raised from 5% to 8%.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (March 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/01/12

November: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.0%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/12/08

Octorber: The Recession Indicator fell to 39.9%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in four months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/11/09

September: The Recession Indicator rose sharply to 71.0%

- The recession probability exceeds the reference point

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/10/08

August: The Recession Indicator moved up to 35.7%

- The Leading Index fell for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator moved up to 19.6%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in two months

Yoshiki Shimoda