March: The Recession Indicator marks 2.3%
－ The Leading Index rose for ten consecutive months
The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 2.3% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose by 4.3 points from the previous month, due to improvements in new job offers, sales forecast of small businesses, consumer confidence, and others, and the Index rose for ten consecutive months. The recession probability is significantly below 67%, which is a reference point of signaling a recession, as The Leading Index recovered to the highest level since March 2014, just before the consumption tax rate had been raised from 5% to 8%.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (March 2021)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.
－ Deterioration of the employment situation could be a factor.
－ Huge probability reduction contributed by the well-performed indices of an inventory ratio
－ Exceeding the warning level due to the stock pile-up resulting from the dismal foreign demands.
－ The probability almost stayed at the previous month's level.
－ New housing construction and stock prices contributed to the improvement