＜Reference value＞May: The Recession Indicator marks 28.6%
－ The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months
2020/07/08
The Recession Indicator (reference value*) in May 2020 marks 28.6% (Figure 1). The probability declined from last month because the Leading Index as the underlying data of calculation, rose for the first time in three months due to improvements in consumer confidence, growth in money stock (M2), and new job offers. An upward revision of the Leading Index for the previous month also contributed to a decline in the probability. It should be noted, however, that future risks, such as a second wave of the novel coronavirus infections and intensifying tensions between the US and China, may not be fully reflected.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (May, 2020, Reference value)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The Recession Indicator has been calculated as a reference value since the release in April 2020. Please click here for more details.
- 2023/11/09
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September: The Recession Indicator was 56.5%
－ Deterioration of the employment situation could be a factor.
- 2023/10/10
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August: The Recession Indicator was 31.7%
－ Huge probability reduction contributed by the well-performed indices of an inventory ratio
- 2023/09/08
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July: The Recession Indicator was 82.7%
－ Exceeding the warning level due to the stock pile-up resulting from the dismal foreign demands.
- 2023/08/08
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June: The Recession Indicator was 44.5%
－ The probability almost stayed at the previous month's level.
- 2023/07/10
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May: The Recession Indicator fell to 37.1% further
－ New housing construction and stock prices contributed to the improvement
