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Recession Indicator

<Reference value>May: The Recession Indicator marks 28.6%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist

2020/07/08

  The Recession Indicator (reference value*) in May 2020 marks 28.6% (Figure 1). The probability declined from last month because the Leading Index as the underlying data of calculation, rose for the first time in three months due to improvements in consumer confidence, growth in money stock (M2), and new job offers. An upward revision of the Leading Index for the previous month also contributed to a decline in the probability. It should be noted, however, that future risks, such as a second wave of the novel coronavirus infections and intensifying tensions between the US and China, may not be fully reflected.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (May, 2020, Reference value)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The Recession Indicator has been calculated as a reference value since the release in April 2020. Please click here for more details.

2020/08/11

<Reference value>June: The Recession Indicator marks 24%

- The Leading Index recorded the largest ever rise

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2020/07/08

<Reference value>May: The Recession Indicator marks 28.6%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2020/06/10

Official release of the recession indicator temporarily suspended: A sharp decline in the leading index due to the Coronavirus crisis distorts the probability

- Until the estimation method is revised, the reference value will continue to be calculated
- The reference value for April is 59.4%

Takashi MIYAZAKI