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Recession Indicator

May: The Recession Indicator moved up to 22.1%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in a year

Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist

2021/07/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 22.1% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data fell for the first time in a year due to deteriorations in the growth of money stock (M2), inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, consumer confidence, and among others, and the recession probability rose to the highest level since June last year. The probability, however, is still below 67%, which is a reference point of signaling a recession.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (May 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/05/12

March: The Recession Indicator fell to 25.8%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/04/08

February: The Recession Indicator rose to 65.7%

- The Indicator rose to near warning level

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/03/09

January: The Recession Indicator rose to 24.7%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in four months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/02/08

December: The Recession Indicator marked 5.0%

- The Leading Index rose for three consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/01/12

November: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.0%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda