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Recession Indicator

May: The Recession Indicator moved up to 22.1%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in a year

Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist

2021/07/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 22.1% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data fell for the first time in a year due to deteriorations in the growth of money stock (M2), inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, consumer confidence, and among others, and the recession probability rose to the highest level since June last year. The probability, however, is still below 67%, which is a reference point of signaling a recession.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (May 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2021/07/08

May: The Recession Indicator moved up to 22.1%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in a year

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2021/06/08

April: The Recession Indicator marks 1.4%

- The Leading Index rose for 11 consecutive months

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2021/05/13

March: The Recession Indicator marks 2.3%

- The Leading Index rose for ten consecutive months

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2021/04/08

February: The Recession Indicator marks 1.2%

- The Leading Index rose to the highest level since June 2018

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2021/03/09

January: The Recession Indicator marks 2.7%

- The leading index rose for the first time in two months

Takashi MIYAZAKI