May: The Recession Indicator moved up to 22.1%

－ The Leading Index fell for the first time in a year

Takashi MIYAZAKI

  Senior Economist

2021/07/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 22.1% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data fell for the first time in a year due to deteriorations in the growth of money stock (M2), inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, consumer confidence, and among others, and the recession probability rose to the highest level since June last year. The probability, however, is still below 67%, which is a reference point of signaling a recession.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (May 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.