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Recession Indicator

May: The Recession Indicator rose to 45.2%

- Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.

Yoshiki Shimoda
  Economist

2022/07/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan in May released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) rose to 45.2% from 33.9% on revised retroactivity value in April (Figure 1). Since the Leading Index as the underlying data fell for the first time in three months, due to deteriorating in the inventory ratio of final demand goods and of producer goods, new housing starts and others. Chinese lockdowns pushed down the indicator related to production. With markup on daily necessities, consumer confidence deteriorated for the first time in three months in June therefore recession indicator in the same month may rise further.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (May 2022)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator rose to 84.7%

- Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/08/09

June: The Recession Indicator rose to 71.1%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/07/08

May: The Recession Indicator rose to 45.2%

- Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/06/08

April: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.9%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/05/12

March: The Recession Indicator fell to 25.8%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Yoshiki Shimoda