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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (August 2018 forecast /2018Q3~2020Q1)

Moderate Growth led by Steady Domestic Demand

―Concern deepens over Trade Friction and Currency Depreciation

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Hisatoshi AOYAMA Trainee Economists
   
Kenta DOMOTO Trainee Economists
   
Yutaro YAMADA Trainee Economists
   

2018/08/30

JCER released August 2018 forecast on Asian Economies. The original report in Japanese is here

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 
- 2018 Q2 GDP continued on a trajectory of moderate growth in China and ASEAN4, owing to steady domestic demand. However, there is concern over rising trade friction and currency depreciation.
- China’s GDP outlook for 2018 has been revised upward due to stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first half of 2018.
- The 2018 economic outlook for ASEAN4 has been lowered from our previous forecast. Growth in Indonesia and Philippines for both 2018 and 2019 has been revised downward, taking into account the impact of the recent interest rate hikes. Thailand’s forecast has been revised upward due to positive income effects supported by strong domestic and external demand. The growth trajectory of Malaysia has been revised, considering the impact of measures announced by the new government.

Asia Short-term forecast 20180830

This forecast is a part of the Short Term forecast No.175.

2020/09/15

Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Tomohiko KOZAWA Trainee Economist/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist

2020/06/05

China in 2020 will be Negative Growth due to Weak External Demand

―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2020 forecast 2020Q2-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Economist:Tetsuo KAN/ Aiko Munakata Trainee Economist

2020/03/03

New Coronavirus disrupts China’s income doubling goal

―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2020 forecast 2020Q1-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Yusuke Masuda Trainee Economist/ Tatsuya Wakasugi Trainee Economist

2019/12/05

Digital Asia under U.S.-China confrontation: the future of innovation and city economies

Medium-Term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 Issue 2019-2035

Masashi UEHARAEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURATetsuo KAN/ Aiko MUNAKATA Economist/ Motohiko KITAHARAGo YAMADA

2019/12/03

China’s Economy continues to slow due to Limited Economic Measures

―Relocating production bases from China will have positive effects for ASEAN4―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 forecast 2019Q4-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Mitsuki Shirasu Trainee Economist/ Shengkai Huang Trainee Economist