Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies （August 2018 forecast /2018Q3~2020Q1）

Moderate Growth led by Steady Domestic Demand

―Concern deepens over Trade Friction and Currency Depreciation

Research Director：Shinichi NISHIOKA: Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director：Eriko TAKAHASHI: Senior Economist
Hisatoshi AOYAMA Trainee Economists
Kenta DOMOTO Trainee Economists
Yutaro YAMADA Trainee Economists

2018/08/30

JCER released August 2018 forecast on Asian Economies. The original report in Japanese is here.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook
- 2018 Q2 GDP continued on a trajectory of moderate growth in China and ASEAN4, owing to steady domestic demand. However, there is concern over rising trade friction and currency depreciation.
- China’s GDP outlook for 2018 has been revised upward due to stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first half of 2018.
- The 2018 economic outlook for ASEAN4 has been lowered from our previous forecast. Growth in Indonesia and Philippines for both 2018 and 2019 has been revised downward, taking into account the impact of the recent interest rate hikes. Thailand’s forecast has been revised upward due to positive income effects supported by strong domestic and external demand. The growth trajectory of Malaysia has been revised, considering the impact of measures announced by the new government.

Asia Short-term forecast 20180830