Moderate Recovery in China and ASEAN4 Supported by Private Consumption

Research Director：Kei-Ichiro INABA

  Chief Forecaster

Deputy Director：Akira TANAKA

  Senior Economist

Asia Forecast Team：Eriko TAKAHASHI

  Senior Economist

Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist

   

2021/12/22

JCER released December 2021 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

• The year-on-year growth rate of China’s real GDP decelerated from 7.9% in Q2 2021 to 4.9% in Q3 2021 due to the electricity supply problem. The economy is expected to rebound in Q4 2021 as the problem is gradually mitigated. The Evergrande problem and newly introduced regulations on purchasing and holding the use of real estate will continue to reduce the growth of real-estate development investment. Nevertheless, the growth of infrastructure investment will remain strong, and the growth of private consumption will be robust too. The real GDP growth rate is projected to be 7.8% in 2021, 5.2% in 2022, and 5.1% in 2023.
• The year-on-year growth rate of ASEAN4’s real GDP decelerated from 9.3% in Q2 2021 to 2.0% in Q3 2021 due to regulations on the people’s mobility introduced in response to the spread of COVID-19. Recently, economic and social activities have been gradually recovering as the vaccination accelerates and the relaxation of lockdown measures proceeds. The economy will improve due to the rebound of private consumption and external demand. The real GDP growth rate is projected to be 2.9% in 2021, 5.0% in 2022, and 4.3% in 2023.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】