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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (December 2021 forecast /2021Q4-2024Q1)

Moderate recovery in China and ASEAN4 supported by private consumption

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist
   

2021/12/22

JCER released December 2021 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • The year-on-year growth rate of China’s real GDP decelerated from 7.9% in Q2 2021 to 4.9% in Q3 2021 due to the electricity supply problem. The economy is expected to rebound in Q4 2021 as the problem is gradually mitigated. The Evergrande problem and newly introduced regulations on purchasing and holding the use of real estate will continue to reduce the growth of real-estate development investment. Nevertheless, the growth of infrastructure investment will remain strong, and the growth of private consumption will be robust too. The real GDP growth rate is projected to be 7.8% in 2021, 5.2% in 2022, and 5.1% in 2023.
  • The year-on-year growth rate of ASEAN4’s real GDP decelerated from 9.3% in Q2 2021 to 2.0% in Q3 2021 due to regulations on the people’s mobility introduced in response to the spread of COVID-19. Recently, economic and social activities have been gradually recovering as the vaccination accelerates and the relaxation of lockdown measures proceeds. The economy will improve due to the rebound of private consumption and external demand. The real GDP growth rate is projected to be 2.9% in 2021, 5.0% in 2022, and 4.3% in 2023.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2021/12/22

Moderate recovery in China and ASEAN4 supported by private consumption

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist

2021/12/15

China to become the world’s largest economy in 2033

-- Korea set to overtake Japan in 2027 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2021 Issue 2021-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMATetsuaki TAKANOEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURA/ Daisuke MARUYAMA/ Masashi UEHARAGo YAMADA

2021/10/25

$1.7 trillion lost because of COVID-19 crisis in Asia

-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Daisuke MARUYAMA Economist/ Tetsuaki TAKANO

2021/09/15

A Pause in Economic Recovery Caused by the Delta Variant

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2021 forecast 2021Q3-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA

2021/06/15

Robust External Demand will Support China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2021 forecast 2021Q2-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKATakashi MIYAZAKI