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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (March 2020 forecast /2020Q1-2022Q1)

New Coronavirus disrupts China’s income doubling goal

―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Yusuke Masuda Trainee Economist
   
Tatsuya Wakasugi Trainee Economist
   

2020/03/03

JCER released March 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China's 2019 Q4 real GDP growth was 6.0%. Due to the expansion of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), 2020 Q1 real GDP growth rate will slow to around 3% year-on-year. We assume that recovery production will start in summer. However, China’s growth rate in 2020 will be 5.4%, so the income doubling goal will not be achieved. China’s growth rate is expected to rebound to 6.2% in 2021.
  • ASEAN4’s economy is also negatively affected by COVID-19, mainly in the tourism and manufacturing industries. These countries are trying to support the economy through monetary easing, but slowdown is inevitable. The overall growth rate of ASEAN4 is expected to fall from 4.4% in 2019 to 4.2% in 2020, then increase to 5.1% in 2021.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2020/09/15

Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Tomohiko KOZAWA Trainee Economist/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist

2020/06/05

China in 2020 will be Negative Growth due to Weak External Demand

―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2020 forecast 2020Q2-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Economist:Tetsuo KAN/ Aiko Munakata Trainee Economist

2020/03/03

New Coronavirus disrupts China’s income doubling goal

―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2020 forecast 2020Q1-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Yusuke Masuda Trainee Economist/ Tatsuya Wakasugi Trainee Economist

2019/12/05

Digital Asia under U.S.-China confrontation: the future of innovation and city economies

Medium-Term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 Issue 2019-2035

Masashi UEHARAEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURATetsuo KAN/ Aiko MUNAKATA Economist/ Motohiko KITAHARAGo YAMADA

2019/12/03

China’s Economy continues to slow due to Limited Economic Measures

―Relocating production bases from China will have positive effects for ASEAN4―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 forecast 2019Q4-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Mitsuki Shirasu Trainee Economist/ Shengkai Huang Trainee Economist