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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (March 2020 forecast /2020Q1-2022Q1)

New Coronavirus disrupts China’s income doubling goal

―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Yusuke Masuda Trainee Economist
   
Tatsuya Wakasugi Trainee Economist
   

2020/03/03

JCER released March 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China's 2019 Q4 real GDP growth was 6.0%. Due to the expansion of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), 2020 Q1 real GDP growth rate will slow to around 3% year-on-year. We assume that recovery production will start in summer. However, China’s growth rate in 2020 will be 5.4%, so the income doubling goal will not be achieved. China’s growth rate is expected to rebound to 6.2% in 2021.
  • ASEAN4’s economy is also negatively affected by COVID-19, mainly in the tourism and manufacturing industries. These countries are trying to support the economy through monetary easing, but slowdown is inevitable. The overall growth rate of ASEAN4 is expected to fall from 4.4% in 2019 to 4.2% in 2020, then increase to 5.1% in 2021.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2022/03/17

Currently Limited Negative Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2022 forecast 2022Q1-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Riki KOHANA Trainee Economist

2022/02/18

Sweden ranks first globally in Digital Potential

-- Japan ranks 16th in JCER’s newly developed index

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Eriko TAKAHASHIAtsushi TOMIYAMA

2021/12/22

Moderate Recovery in China and ASEAN4 Supported by Private Consumption

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist

2021/12/15

China to become the world’s largest economy in 2033

-- Korea set to overtake Japan in 2027 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2021 Issue 2021-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMATetsuaki TAKANOEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURA/ Daisuke MARUYAMA/ Masashi UEHARAGo YAMADA

2021/10/25

$1.7 trillion lost because of COVID-19 crisis in Asia

-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Daisuke MARUYAMA Economist/ Tetsuaki TAKANO