New Coronavirus disrupts China’s income doubling goal
―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―
JCER released March 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.
China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook
- China's 2019 Q4 real GDP growth was 6.0%. Due to the expansion of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), 2020 Q1 real GDP growth rate will slow to around 3% year-on-year. We assume that recovery production will start in summer. However, China’s growth rate in 2020 will be 5.4%, so the income doubling goal will not be achieved. China’s growth rate is expected to rebound to 6.2% in 2021.
- ASEAN4’s economy is also negatively affected by COVID-19, mainly in the tourism and manufacturing industries. These countries are trying to support the economy through monetary easing, but slowdown is inevitable. The overall growth rate of ASEAN4 is expected to fall from 4.4% in 2019 to 4.2% in 2020, then increase to 5.1% in 2021.
【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】
-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect
Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2021 forecast 2021Q3-2023Q1
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2021 forecast 2021Q2-2023Q1
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2021 forecast 2021Q1-2023Q1
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1