New Coronavirus disrupts China’s income doubling goal
―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―
JCER released March 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.
China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook
- China's 2019 Q4 real GDP growth was 6.0%. Due to the expansion of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), 2020 Q1 real GDP growth rate will slow to around 3% year-on-year. We assume that recovery production will start in summer. However, China’s growth rate in 2020 will be 5.4%, so the income doubling goal will not be achieved. China’s growth rate is expected to rebound to 6.2% in 2021.
- ASEAN4’s economy is also negatively affected by COVID-19, mainly in the tourism and manufacturing industries. These countries are trying to support the economy through monetary easing, but slowdown is inevitable. The overall growth rate of ASEAN4 is expected to fall from 4.4% in 2019 to 4.2% in 2020, then increase to 5.1% in 2021.
【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】
-- Taiwan set to overtake Japan in 2022 in terms of GDP per capita
Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2022 Issue 2022-2035
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2022 forecast 2022Q2-2024Q1
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2022 forecast 2022Q1-2024Q1
-- Japan ranks 16th in JCER’s newly developed index
Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1