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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (March 2020 forecast /2020Q1-2022Q1)

New Coronavirus disrupts China’s income doubling goal

―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Yusuke Masuda Trainee Economist
   
Tatsuya Wakasugi Trainee Economist
   

2020/03/03

JCER released March 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China's 2019 Q4 real GDP growth was 6.0%. Due to the expansion of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), 2020 Q1 real GDP growth rate will slow to around 3% year-on-year. We assume that recovery production will start in summer. However, China’s growth rate in 2020 will be 5.4%, so the income doubling goal will not be achieved. China’s growth rate is expected to rebound to 6.2% in 2021.
  • ASEAN4’s economy is also negatively affected by COVID-19, mainly in the tourism and manufacturing industries. These countries are trying to support the economy through monetary easing, but slowdown is inevitable. The overall growth rate of ASEAN4 is expected to fall from 4.4% in 2019 to 4.2% in 2020, then increase to 5.1% in 2021.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2021/06/15

Robust External Demand will Support China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2021 forecast 2021Q2-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKATakashi MIYAZAKI

2021/03/16

Continuing Growth for China, Slow Recover for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2021 forecast 2021Q1-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Daichi HARASAWA Trainee Economist

2020/12/17

Robust Expansion for China, Soft Recovery for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist/ Daisuke MARUYAMA Trainee Economist

2020/12/10

Asia in the coronavirus disaster: Which countries are emerging?

-- China overtakes U.S. in 2028-29

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2020 Issue 2020-2035

Masashi UEHARAAkira TANAKATamaki SAKURA/ Aiko MUNAKATA Economist/ Go YAMADA

2020/09/15

Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Tomohiko KOZAWA Trainee Economist/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist