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Recession Indicator

November: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.0%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda
  Economist

2022/01/12

  The Recession Indicator for Japan in November released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) fell to 10.0% from 12.2% on revised retroactivity value in September (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data rose for two consecutive months, due to improvements in the inventory ratio of final demand goods and of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, new job offers, and others. Recovery production of automobiles, accompanied by a recovery in semiconductor supply, boosted manufacturing Indicators. However, given that the number of COVID-19 patients increased rapidly around the world with the emergence of the omicron variant and semi-emergency coronavirus measures began in several prefectures, economic outlook is highly uncertain.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (November 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/01/12

November: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.0%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/12/08

Octorber: The Recession Indicator fell to 39.9%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in four months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/11/09

September: The Recession Indicator rose sharply to 71.0%

- The recession probability exceeds the reference point

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/10/08

August: The Recession Indicator moved up to 35.7%

- The Leading Index fell for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator moved up to 19.6%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in two months

Yoshiki Shimoda