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Recession Indicator

November: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.0%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda
  Economist

2022/01/12

  The Recession Indicator for Japan in November released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) fell to 10.0% from 12.2% on revised retroactivity value in September (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data rose for two consecutive months, due to improvements in the inventory ratio of final demand goods and of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, new job offers, and others. Recovery production of automobiles, accompanied by a recovery in semiconductor supply, boosted manufacturing Indicators. However, given that the number of COVID-19 patients increased rapidly around the world with the emergence of the omicron variant and semi-emergency coronavirus measures began in several prefectures, economic outlook is highly uncertain.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (November 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/11/10

September: The Recession Indicator rose to 75.8%

- Deterioration of production pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/10/11

August: The Recession Indicator fell to 54.9%

- Improvement of consumer confidence pushed up the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator rose to 84.7%

- Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/08/09

June: The Recession Indicator rose to 71.1%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/07/08

May: The Recession Indicator rose to 45.2%

- Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.

Yoshiki Shimoda