November: The Recession Indicator marks 1.8%
－ The Leading Index rose for six consecutive months
The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 1.8% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for six consecutive months, due to improvements in new job offers, sales forecast of small businesses, stock prices (TOPIX), and others. Although the recession probability remains low level, significantly below 67%, which is a signal of recession, consumer confidence in December gets worse in response to the third wave of spread of COVID-19 infections, uncertainty about economic outlook leaves high.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (November 2020)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.
－ Deterioration of the employment situation could be a factor.
－ Huge probability reduction contributed by the well-performed indices of an inventory ratio
－ Exceeding the warning level due to the stock pile-up resulting from the dismal foreign demands.
－ The probability almost stayed at the previous month's level.
－ New housing construction and stock prices contributed to the improvement