November: The Recession Indicator rose to 80.8%

－ "Early warning signal" alarmed again

Yoshiki SHIMODA

  Economist

2023/01/12

  The Recession Indicator for Japan in November released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) rose to 80.8% from 78.1% on revised retroactivity value in October (Figure 1). Since the Leading Index as the underlying data rose for the first time in two months, due to deteriorating in the inventory ratio of final demand goods, consumer confidence, sales forecast of small businesses and others. The Recession Indicator in October exceeded 67%, which is a reference point of signaling recession. In December, since there was no movement restriction during the New Year holidays, consumer confidence improved. On the other hand, given that downside risk of production associated with the worldwide economic slowdown remains, the economic outlook is uncertain.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (November 2022)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.