October: The Recession Indicator fell to 35.3%
－ The Indicator was below the reference point of signaling recession
The Recession Indicator for Japan in October released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) fell to 35.3% from 45.4% on revised retroactivity value in September (Figure 1). Since the Leading Index as the underlying data rose for the first time in two months, due to improve of the inventory ratio of final demand goods, new job offers, sales forecast of small businesses and others. The Recession Indicator in October was below 67%, which is a reference point of signaling recession. The Indicators of new job offers and sales forecast improved in October, mainly because the number of COVID-19 patients remained at low level compared to the July-September quarter, when the rapid spread of COVID-19 infection.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (Octorber 2022)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.
－ Deterioration of the employment situation could be a factor.
－ Huge probability reduction contributed by the well-performed indices of an inventory ratio
－ Exceeding the warning level due to the stock pile-up resulting from the dismal foreign demands.
－ The probability almost stayed at the previous month's level.
－ New housing construction and stock prices contributed to the improvement