October: The Recession Indicator marks 3.1%
－ The Leading Index rose for five consecutive months
2020/12/08
The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 3.1% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for five consecutive months, due to improvements in inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, sales forecast of small businesses, commodity price index, and others. The background is a recovery of overseas economies such as China. Although economic outlook leaves uncertain with a rebound of the COVID-19 infections, the recession probability remains low level, significantly below 67%, which is a signal of recession.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (October 2020)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here) for more details.
- 2023/11/09
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September: The Recession Indicator was 56.5%
－ Deterioration of the employment situation could be a factor.
- 2023/10/10
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August: The Recession Indicator was 31.7%
－ Huge probability reduction contributed by the well-performed indices of an inventory ratio
- 2023/09/08
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July: The Recession Indicator was 82.7%
－ Exceeding the warning level due to the stock pile-up resulting from the dismal foreign demands.
- 2023/08/08
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June: The Recession Indicator was 44.5%
－ The probability almost stayed at the previous month's level.
- 2023/07/10
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May: The Recession Indicator fell to 37.1% further
－ New housing construction and stock prices contributed to the improvement
