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Recession Indicator

October: The Recession Indicator marks 3.1%

- The Leading Index rose for five consecutive months

Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist

2020/12/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 3.1% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for five consecutive months, due to improvements in inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, sales forecast of small businesses, commodity price index, and others. The background is a recovery of overseas economies such as China. Although economic outlook leaves uncertain with a rebound of the COVID-19 infections, the recession probability remains low level, significantly below 67%, which is a signal of recession.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (October 2020)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here) for more details.

2021/01/12

November: The Recession Indicator marks 1.8%

- The Leading Index rose for six consecutive months

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2020/12/08

October: The Recession Indicator marks 3.1%

- The Leading Index rose for five consecutive months

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2020/11/10

September: The Recession Indicator marks 7.1%

- The Leading Index exceeded the pre-corona epidemic level

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2020/10/08

August: The Recession Indicator marks 10.5%

- The Leading Index rose for three successive months

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2020/09/08

The Recession probability marks 30.7% in July

- Official publish resumes and estimation method is improved

Takashi MIYAZAKI