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Recession Indicator

October: The Recession Indicator marks 3.1%

- The Leading Index rose for five consecutive months

Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist

2020/12/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 3.1% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for five consecutive months, due to improvements in inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, sales forecast of small businesses, commodity price index, and others. The background is a recovery of overseas economies such as China. Although economic outlook leaves uncertain with a rebound of the COVID-19 infections, the recession probability remains low level, significantly below 67%, which is a signal of recession.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (October 2020)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here) for more details.

2021/04/08

February: The Recession Indicator marks 1.2%

- The Leading Index rose to the highest level since June 2018

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2021/03/09

January: The Recession Indicator marks 2.7%

- The leading index rose for the first time in two months

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2021/02/08

December: The Recession Indicator rose to 23.7%

- The leading index fell for the first time in seven months

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2021/01/12

November: The Recession Indicator marks 1.8%

- The Leading Index rose for six consecutive months

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2020/12/08

October: The Recession Indicator marks 3.1%

- The Leading Index rose for five consecutive months

Takashi MIYAZAKI