October: The Recession Indicator marks 3.1%
－ The Leading Index rose for five consecutive months
The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 3.1% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for five consecutive months, due to improvements in inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, sales forecast of small businesses, commodity price index, and others. The background is a recovery of overseas economies such as China. Although economic outlook leaves uncertain with a rebound of the COVID-19 infections, the recession probability remains low level, significantly below 67%, which is a signal of recession.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (October 2020)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here) for more details.
－ Deterioration of the employment situation could be a factor.
－ Huge probability reduction contributed by the well-performed indices of an inventory ratio
－ Exceeding the warning level due to the stock pile-up resulting from the dismal foreign demands.
－ The probability almost stayed at the previous month's level.
－ New housing construction and stock prices contributed to the improvement