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Recession Indicator

Octorber: The Recession Indicator fell to 39.9%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in four months

Yoshiki Shimoda
  Economist

2021/12/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan in October released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) fell to 39.9% from 50.3% on revised retroactivity value in September (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data rose for the first time in four months due to improvements in the inventory ratio of final demand goods and consumer confidence, commodity price index, and others. Movement restriction of people eased in October following the lifting of emergency declarations in Tokyo and other prefectures at the end of September and automobile production picked up slightly in October, boosting the consumption and manufacturing Indicators. However, there are concerns about the spread of the Omicron variant of the COVID-19, so economic outlook is highly uncertain.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (Octorber 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/01/12

November: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.0%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/12/08

Octorber: The Recession Indicator fell to 39.9%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in four months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/11/09

September: The Recession Indicator rose sharply to 71.0%

- The recession probability exceeds the reference point

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/10/08

August: The Recession Indicator moved up to 35.7%

- The Leading Index fell for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator moved up to 19.6%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in two months

Yoshiki Shimoda