Robust Expansion for China, Soft Recovery for ASEAN4
JCER released December 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.
China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook
- China's real GDP growth rate increased from 3.2% in Q2 to 4.9% in Q3 2020. A solid recovery of private consumption is observed thanks to improvements of employment and income environment. China’s economy is projected to expand steadily over the forecasting period. The projection is based upon our aggressive estimation of economic effects of "Made in China 2025" and "New Infrastructure Construction,” the latter of which is a massive infrastructure investment plan of 10 trillion yuan by 2025. The GDP growth rate is projected to be 2.2% in 2020, 9.4% in 2021, and 6.4% in 2022.
- ASEAN4’s real GDP growth rate improved from –10.4% in Q2 to –5.3% in Q3 2020. Its economic recovery is still soft mainly due to sluggish private consumption. The GDP growth rate in 2020 is projected to be –4.4%. Because the export to China will increase, the growth rate is projected to be 7.4% in 2021 and 6.9% in 2022.
【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1
-- China overtakes U.S. in 2028-29
Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2020 Issue 2020-2035
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1
―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2020 forecast 2020Q2-2022Q1
―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2020 forecast 2020Q1-2022Q1