Robust Expansion for China, Soft Recovery for ASEAN4

Research Director：Kei-Ichiro INABA

  Chief Forecaster

Deputy Director：Akira TANAKA

  Senior Economist

Takuto IREI Trainee Economist

   

Daisuke MARUYAMA Trainee Economist

   

2020/12/17

JCER released December 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

• China's real GDP growth rate increased from 3.2% in Q2 to 4.9% in Q3 2020. A solid recovery of private consumption is observed thanks to improvements of employment and income environment. China’s economy is projected to expand steadily over the forecasting period. The projection is based upon our aggressive estimation of economic effects of "Made in China 2025" and "New Infrastructure Construction,” the latter of which is a massive infrastructure investment plan of 10 trillion yuan by 2025. The GDP growth rate is projected to be 2.2% in 2020, 9.4% in 2021, and 6.4% in 2022.
• ASEAN4’s real GDP growth rate improved from –10.4% in Q2 to –5.3% in Q3 2020. Its economic recovery is still soft mainly due to sluggish private consumption. The GDP growth rate in 2020 is projected to be –4.4%. Because the export to China will increase, the growth rate is projected to be 7.4% in 2021 and 6.9% in 2022.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】