Back to List
Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (December 2020 forecast /2020Q4-2023Q1)

Robust Expansion for China, Soft Recovery for ASEAN4

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Takuto IREI Trainee Economist
   
Daisuke MARUYAMA Trainee Economist
   

2020/12/17

JCER released December 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China's real GDP growth rate increased from 3.2% in Q2 to 4.9% in Q3 2020. A solid recovery of private consumption is observed thanks to improvements of employment and income environment. China’s economy is projected to expand steadily over the forecasting period. The projection is based upon our aggressive estimation of economic effects of "Made in China 2025" and "New Infrastructure Construction,” the latter of which is a massive infrastructure investment plan of 10 trillion yuan by 2025. The GDP growth rate is projected to be 2.2% in 2020, 9.4% in 2021, and 6.4% in 2022.
  • ASEAN4’s real GDP growth rate improved from –10.4% in Q2 to –5.3% in Q3 2020. Its economic recovery is still soft mainly due to sluggish private consumption. The GDP growth rate in 2020 is projected to be –4.4%. Because the export to China will increase, the growth rate is projected to be 7.4% in 2021 and 6.9% in 2022.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2020/12/17

Robust Expansion for China, Soft Recovery for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist/ Daisuke MARUYAMA Trainee Economist

2020/12/10

Asia in the coronavirus disaster: Which countries are emerging?

-- China overtakes U.S. in 2028-29

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2020 Issue 2020-2035

Masashi UEHARAAkira TANAKATamaki SAKURA/ Aiko MUNAKATA Economist/ Go YAMADA

2020/09/15

Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Tomohiko KOZAWA Trainee Economist/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist

2020/06/05

China in 2020 will be Negative Growth due to Weak External Demand

―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2020 forecast 2020Q2-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Economist:Tetsuo KAN/ Aiko Munakata Trainee Economist

2020/03/03

New Coronavirus disrupts China’s income doubling goal

―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2020 forecast 2020Q1-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Yusuke Masuda Trainee Economist/ Tatsuya Wakasugi Trainee Economist