Robust External Demand will Support China and ASEAN4

Research Director：Kei-Ichiro INABA

  Chief Forecaster

Deputy Director：Akira TANAKA

  Senior Economist

Takashi MIYAZAKI

  Senior Economist

2021/06/15

JCER released June 2021 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

• The year-on-year growth rate of China’s real GDP increased from 6.5% in Q4 2020 to 18.3% in Q1 2021. The robust growth in domestic fixed capital formation and exports will boost the Chinese economy. The private consumption will also gradually recover as the employment and income environment improves. The GDP growth rate is projected to be 9.1% in 2021 and 6.0% in 2022.
• The year-on-year growth rate of ASEAN4’s real GDP increased from －3.9% in Q4 2020 to －1.6% in Q1 2021. There are differences in recovery in private consumption across member countries, depending on the degree of their own restrictions on social and economic activities in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Buoyant foreign demand due to the recovering world economy will increase the countries’ exports, especially those of industrial products and automobiles. The GDP growth rate is projected to be 4.7% in 2021 and 5.4% in 2022.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】