September: The Recession Indicator marks 7.1%
－ The Leading Index exceeded the pre-corona epidemic level
The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 7.1% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for four consecutive months, due to improvements in consumer confidence, inventory ratios of producer goods for mining and manufacturing and of final demand goods, and others, and the Index exceeded the level in February prior to the effects of the spread of the COVID-19 infection became apparent. At the same time, the recession probability remains at a low level significantly below 67% which is the reference level signaling a recession.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (September 2020)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here) for more details.
January: The Recession Indicator marks 94.0%
－ The Leading Index is at its lowest level in about two years
December: The Recession Indicator reached 92.3%
－ The highest level since November 2019
November: The Recession Indicator rose to 80.8%
－ "Early warning signal" alarmed again
October: The Recession Indicator fell to 35.3%
－ The Indicator was below the reference point of signaling recession
September: The Recession Indicator rose to 75.8%
－ Deterioration of production pushed down the Leading Index