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Recession Indicator

September: The Recession Indicator marks 7.1%

- The Leading Index exceeded the pre-corona epidemic level

  Senior Economist


  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 7.1% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for four consecutive months, due to improvements in consumer confidence, inventory ratios of producer goods for mining and manufacturing and of final demand goods, and others, and the Index exceeded the level in February prior to the effects of the spread of the COVID-19 infection became apparent. At the same time, the recession probability remains at a low level significantly below 67% which is the reference level signaling a recession.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (September 2020)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here) for more details.


March: The Recession Indicator fell to 25.8%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Yoshiki Shimoda


February: The Recession Indicator rose to 65.7%

- The Indicator rose to near warning level

Yoshiki Shimoda


January: The Recession Indicator rose to 24.7%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in four months

Yoshiki Shimoda


December: The Recession Indicator marked 5.0%

- The Leading Index rose for three consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda


November: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.0%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda