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Recession Indicator

September: The Recession Indicator marks 7.1%

- The Leading Index exceeded the pre-corona epidemic level

Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist

2020/11/10

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 7.1% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for four consecutive months, due to improvements in consumer confidence, inventory ratios of producer goods for mining and manufacturing and of final demand goods, and others, and the Index exceeded the level in February prior to the effects of the spread of the COVID-19 infection became apparent. At the same time, the recession probability remains at a low level significantly below 67% which is the reference level signaling a recession.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (September 2020)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here) for more details.

2021/11/09

September: The Recession Indicator rose sharply to 71.0%

- The recession probability exceeds the reference point

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/10/08

August: The Recession Indicator moved up to 35.7%

- The Leading Index fell for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator moved up to 19.6%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in two months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/08/10

June: The Recession Indicator fell to 5.7%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in two months

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2021/07/08

May: The Recession Indicator moved up to 22.1%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in a year

Takashi MIYAZAKI