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Recession Indicator

September: The Recession Indicator rose sharply to 71.0%

- The recession probability exceeds the reference point

Yoshiki Shimoda


  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) rose sharply to 71.0% from 35.7% in August, when it was estimated last month (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data fell for three consecutive months, due to deteriorations in the inventory ratio of final demand goods and producer goods for mining and manufacturing, sales forecast of small businesses, and others, and the recession probability exceeds 67% which is a reference point of signaling a recession for the first time in one year and eight months based on estimated value in this month. Declaration of a state of emergency in Tokyo and other prefectures until end of month and reduced production of automobiles effected indicators. However, the probability may be revised downward depending on data in October, so it is necessary to keep in mind a uncertainly is involved in the estimated probability.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (September 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.


July: The Recession Indicator rose to 84.7%

- Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda


June: The Recession Indicator rose to 71.1%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed

Yoshiki Shimoda


May: The Recession Indicator rose to 45.2%

- Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.

Yoshiki Shimoda


April: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.9%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda


March: The Recession Indicator fell to 25.8%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Yoshiki Shimoda