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Recession Indicator

September: The Recession Indicator rose to 75.8%

- Deterioration of production pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda
  Economist

2022/11/10

  The Recession Indicator for Japan in September released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) fell to 75.8% from 75.5% on revised retroactivity value in August (Figure 1). Since the Leading Index as the underlying data fell for the first time in two months, due to deteriorating in the inventory ratio of final demand goods and of producer goods, consumer confidence and others. The Recession Indicator in September was above 67%, which is a reference point of signaling recession. Concern about slowdown of global economy pushed down the indicator related to production. The recession indicator in October may remain high, due to downside risks in global economy and continuation of price hikes in daily necessities.  

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (September 2022)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/11/10

September: The Recession Indicator rose to 75.8%

- Deterioration of production pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/10/11

August: The Recession Indicator fell to 54.9%

- Improvement of consumer confidence pushed up the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator rose to 84.7%

- Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/08/09

June: The Recession Indicator rose to 71.1%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/07/08

May: The Recession Indicator rose to 45.2%

- Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.

Yoshiki Shimoda