September: The Recession Indicator was 56.5%
－ Deterioration of the employment situation could be a factor.
2023/11/09
The Recession Indicator for Japan in September 2023, compiled by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER), was 56.5%, up from the previous month by 3.3 pts (retroactively revised basis, Figure 1). The indicator had been below the warning level (67%) six months in a row. In September, New Job Offers (NJO) and Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) were the negative contributors to the leading index (CI). "Employment Situation", one of the components of CCI, had the worst reduction. This could be related to the fact that NJO had also a minus effect on CI. On the other hand, NJO especially in the manufacturing industry continued to decrease recently. An uncertainty in overseas business conditions seemed to be linked with the deterioration.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (September 2023)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.
- 2023/11/09
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September: The Recession Indicator was 56.5%
－ Deterioration of the employment situation could be a factor.
- 2023/10/10
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August: The Recession Indicator was 31.7%
－ Huge probability reduction contributed by the well-performed indices of an inventory ratio
- 2023/09/08
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July: The Recession Indicator was 82.7%
－ Exceeding the warning level due to the stock pile-up resulting from the dismal foreign demands.
- 2023/08/08
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June: The Recession Indicator was 44.5%
－ The probability almost stayed at the previous month's level.
- 2023/07/10
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May: The Recession Indicator fell to 37.1% further
－ New housing construction and stock prices contributed to the improvement
