All nuclear power stations in Japan may be forced to cease operation in the wake of the disastrous accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. We have used the JCER regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the impact of the electricity shortage over the medium to long term. Power shortages resulting from the shutdown of nuclear power stations and higher power costs associated with the substitution of thermal power generation are delivering shocks to the economy, but industrial restructuring could reduce the margin of decline to 0.4%. If Japanese industry could be structurally altered to power it through energy-saving technology, it might be possible to avoid a decline in the production of machinery, the nation’s mainstay industry.