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Medium Term Economic Forecast Medium-Term Economic Forecast (44th/Special Report)

Inter-generational Equity under the Increasing Longevity

Sumio SARUYAMA
  Lead Economist
Saeko MAEDA
  Principal Economist
Ryo HASUMI
  Specially Appointed Fellow
Kazuki KUROIWA Trainee Economist(Aflac)
   

2018/02/22

JCER Medium-Term Economic Forecast Team

 We examine how the extension of life span will affect the relative advantage of each generation, as Japan enters the age of the centenarian. In addition to evaluating the benefits (consumption) that can be additionally enjoyed with a longer life span, we will also focus on the economic contribution by the elderly working longer. If seniors extend their working and earning lives, rolling back the age at which they begin receiving pension benefits, the government's fiscal balance of tax and social security will improve, which can reduce the burden on young and future generations. We consider how far it may be possible to avoid outcomes which place the greatest burden on the youngest generations.

2023/04/20

Promoting Innovation by Expanding Free Trade and Breaking Away from In-house Mentality

DX and human capital investment will get the Japanese economy on growth track again

Economic Forecast 49th FY2022-FY2035

Tatsuya ISHIITomoki MATSUOKatsuaki OCHIAITatsuo KOBAYASHI

2022/06/01

Japan’s economy after Russian invasion of Ukraine

- Soaring resource prices, risk of zero growth in the mid-2020s
- Tighter sanctions may cause negative growth
- DX effective for both countering high resource prices and for improving productivity in medical and long-term care

Economic Forecast 48th FY2021-FY2035

2021/04/07

Japan’s post-COVID economy

- DX acceleration is a path to green growth
- Growth strategy under decarbonization constraints

Economic Forecast 47th FY2020-FY2035

Tatsuo KOBAYASHITetsuaki TAKANOSumio SARUYAMAKatsuaki OCHIAIKyoko DEGUCHIHirofumi KAWASAKITatsujiro SUZUKIHikaru KOBAYASHI/ Yuichi ARITA Trainee Economist (The House of Representatives)/ Tetsuji NAKAHARA Trainee Economist (HIGASHI-NIPPON BANK)/ Shunya MATSUO Trainee Economist (CHUBU Electric Power)

2020/08/11

Economy before and after the Coronavirus Crisis

- Real GDP level will fall by 2% due to rapid expansion of debt
- Prolonged virus outbreak and intensified international friction will result in “nightmare scenario”

Economic Forecast 47th FY2020-FY2035

Tatsuo KOBAYASHISumio SARUYAMAKatsuaki OCHIAI

2019/04/25

Toward Human Capital Investment to Support Domestic Demand

~The Key to Growth in a Shrinking Economy~

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030

Saeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIAkira TANAKARyo HASUMI/ Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)/ Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)/ Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)