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Medium Term Medium-Term Economic Forecast for the Japanese Economy (44th / Special Report)

Slow US Wage Growth Explained

- Changing Demographic & Employment Trend

Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist

2017/12/18

Abstract
 Despite a seemingly strong labor market, wage growth in the US has remained relatively slow since the Great Recession. What are the underlying causes for this? This report examines the driving forces of sluggish wages with a particular focus on changing demographic and employment trends. The analysis reveals that (A) the slowing and aging of the population, (B) the retirement of baby boomers, (C) the decline in the prime-age labor force participation rate, and (D) shifts in sectoral and occupational composition of employment are potential factors that may have contributed to the wage slowdown. These structural factors or long-term trends are not expected to be reversed in the near future. Consequently, wages may remain on a modest growth trajectory in the long run. 

2020/08/11

Economy before and after the Coronavirus Crisis

- Real GDP level will fall by 2% due to rapid expansion of debt
- Prolonged virus outbreak and intensified international friction will result in “nightmare scenario”

Economic Forecast 47th FY2020-FY2035

Tatsuo KOBAYASHISumio SARUYAMAKatsuaki OCHIAI

2019/04/25

Toward Human Capital Investment to Support Domestic Demand

~The Key to Growth in a Shrinking Economy~

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030

Saeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIAkira TANAKARyo HASUMI/ Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)/ Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)/ Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)

2018/11/29

Investments Shift to Support Domestic Demand

- During an “Economic War of Attrition”-

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030

Saeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIAkira TANAKARyo HASUMI/ Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)/ Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)/ Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)

2018/04/06

Economic Growth through Drastic Changes in How People Work

-A Society That Capitalizes on Longevity-

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 44th FY2017-FY2030

Sumio SARUYAMASaeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIRyo HASUMI/ Kazuki KUROIWA Trainee Economis(Aflac)/ Azusa SUZUKI Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Representatives)

2018/02/22

Inter-generational Equity under the Increasing Longevity

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 44thSpecial Report

Sumio SARUYAMASaeko MAEDARyo HASUMI/ Kazuki KUROIWA Trainee Economist(Aflac)