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Medium Term Economic Forecast Medium-Term Economic Forecast for the Japanese Economy (44th / Special Report)

Slow US Wage Growth Explained

- Changing Demographic & Employment Trend

  Senior Economist


 Despite a seemingly strong labor market, wage growth in the US has remained relatively slow since the Great Recession. What are the underlying causes for this? This report examines the driving forces of sluggish wages with a particular focus on changing demographic and employment trends. The analysis reveals that (A) the slowing and aging of the population, (B) the retirement of baby boomers, (C) the decline in the prime-age labor force participation rate, and (D) shifts in sectoral and occupational composition of employment are potential factors that may have contributed to the wage slowdown. These structural factors or long-term trends are not expected to be reversed in the near future. Consequently, wages may remain on a modest growth trajectory in the long run. 


Promoting Innovation by Expanding Free Trade and Breaking Away from In-house Mentality

DX and human capital investment will get the Japanese economy on growth track again

Economic Forecast 49th FY2022-FY2035



Japan’s economy after Russian invasion of Ukraine

- Soaring resource prices, risk of zero growth in the mid-2020s
- Tighter sanctions may cause negative growth
- DX effective for both countering high resource prices and for improving productivity in medical and long-term care

Economic Forecast 48th FY2021-FY2035


Japan’s post-COVID economy

- DX acceleration is a path to green growth
- Growth strategy under decarbonization constraints

Economic Forecast 47th FY2020-FY2035

Tatsuo KOBAYASHITetsuaki TAKANOSumio SARUYAMAKatsuaki OCHIAIKyoko DEGUCHIHirofumi KAWASAKITatsujiro SUZUKIHikaru KOBAYASHI/ Yuichi ARITA Trainee Economist (The House of Representatives)/ Tetsuji NAKAHARA Trainee Economist (HIGASHI-NIPPON BANK)/ Shunya MATSUO Trainee Economist (CHUBU Electric Power)


Economy before and after the Coronavirus Crisis

- Real GDP level will fall by 2% due to rapid expansion of debt
- Prolonged virus outbreak and intensified international friction will result in “nightmare scenario”

Economic Forecast 47th FY2020-FY2035



Toward Human Capital Investment to Support Domestic Demand

~The Key to Growth in a Shrinking Economy~

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030

Saeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIAkira TANAKARyo HASUMI/ Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)/ Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)/ Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)