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Vision2050 JCER Long-Term World Forecast - Three Scenarios

Three Barriers on the Road to Prosperity



Population demographics, energy and government debt are among the structural problems which Japan must overcome in the coming decades. We have worked out an independent long-term forecast for Japan through 2050 with a view to considering what steps the nation must take to maintain vitality into the future.
(This is translation from the article appeared in the Nihon Keizai Shimbun.)


The Impact of the State of Emergency on the Japanese Economy

State of Emergency should be extended until Stage II
-- Consumption will set to recover from spring 2021
-- Large benefit to the medical care system and the economy


Urgent Policy Proposals

Priority should be given to fighting the virus,not stimulating the economy
-- Direct spending of 11tn yen to protect livelihoods, businesses
-- Action plans based on prolonged infection are essential

主査:Kazumasa IWATA


Accident Cleanup Costs Rising to 35-80 Trillion Yen in 40 Years

Considering the postponing of decommissioning with “Confinement-managing” scenario as a possible option
Urgent need for measures to manage contaminated water

Public Financial Burden of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident


In fiscal 2018, we will revise our long-term macroeconomic forecasts to 2060.


Productivity has not been growing in tandem with increasing PhDs in Japan

- Problem may be rooted in university education or business misapplication
- As imported technology stalls, "self-sufficiency" remains the rule in Japan

Does Japanese research and development contribute to economic growth?


CO2 Emissions Reduction of 70% by 2050 is Possible with the Introduction of an Environmental Tax

- Making the Environment Protection Compatible with Economic Growth is Possible with Structural Economic Reforms
- Tax Revenues of ¥12 Trillion would be needed if fossil fuel prices remain unchanged


Japan’s Non-Manufacturing Sector Must Seek to Utilize AI & IoT Technologies

-- Breaking Away from Existing Operations is Crucial

Moving to an information-oriented society