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Medium Term Medium-Term Economic Forecast (45th / FY2018-FY2030)

Toward Human Capital Investment to Support Domestic Demand

~The Key to Growth in a Shrinking Economy~

Saeko MAEDA
  Principal Economist
Katsuaki OCHIAI
  Specially Appointed Fellow
Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Ryo HASUMI
  Specially Appointed Fellow
Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)
   
Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)
   
Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)
   

2019/04/25

 

JCER Medium-Term Economic Forecast Team

The Japanese economy has expanded, supported by overseas economies shifting to a position of strength; however, there are also signs of change in its movement. In the medium term, we cannot grow through dependence on overseas economies.
The protectionist policies in some countries have significantly cooled the global economy. The short-term effects have already appeared, and have taken on the appearance of an economic war of attrition. Moreover, in the medium–long term, the ageing demographics in Europe and Asia are expected to slow growth.
Turning our eyes to the Japanese domestic market, consumption and investment structures are changing with population aging and digitalization. Demand for human services, particularly medical care and nursing, is increasing. In these fields, the growing demand cannot be adequately addressed if productivity cannot be increased, and human resources secured. To that end, it is necessary to change labor-intensive industries through new technologies, centering on information communications technology (ICT) and robotics. Domestic capital investment, such as investment in labor-reduction trends, is also increasing; however, this growth is modest compared with the growth in company profits. Inadequate investment in human resources, such as new technology introduction and training, will disturb improvements in productivity. Thus, it will become impossible to break from a shrinking economy due to a lack of human resources.
While factoring in the difficult overseas economic environment, responses to structural changes in domestic demand are required for investment and to secure human resources from both domestic and overseas regions. This may well be the key to revitalizing the economy.

2019/04/25

Toward Human Capital Investment to Support Domestic Demand

~The Key to Growth in a Shrinking Economy~

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030

Saeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIAkira TANAKARyo HASUMI/ Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)/ Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)/ Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)

2018/11/29

Investments Shift to Support Domestic Demand

- During an “Economic War of Attrition”-

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030

Saeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIAkira TANAKARyo HASUMI/ Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)/ Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)/ Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)

2018/04/06

Economic Growth through Drastic Changes in How People Work

-A Society That Capitalizes on Longevity-

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 44th FY2017-FY2030

Sumio SARUYAMASaeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIRyo HASUMI/ Kazuki KUROIWA Trainee Economis(Aflac)/ Azusa SUZUKI Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Representatives)

2018/02/22

Inter-generational Equity under the Increasing Longevity

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 44thSpecial Report

Sumio SARUYAMASaeko MAEDARyo HASUMI/ Kazuki KUROIWA Trainee Economist(Aflac)

2017/12/18

Slow US Wage Growth Explained

- Changing Demographic & Employment Trend

Medium-Term Economic Forecast for the Japanese Economy 44th Special Report

Eriko TAKAHASHI