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Medium Term Economic Forecast Medium-Term Economic Forecast (45th / FY2018-FY2030)

Toward Human Capital Investment to Support Domestic Demand

~The Key to Growth in a Shrinking Economy~

  Principal Economist
Katsuaki OCHIAI
  Specially Appointed Fellow
  Senior Economist
  Specially Appointed Fellow
Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)
Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)
Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)



JCER Medium-Term Economic Forecast Team

The Japanese economy has expanded, supported by overseas economies shifting to a position of strength; however, there are also signs of change in its movement. In the medium term, we cannot grow through dependence on overseas economies.
The protectionist policies in some countries have significantly cooled the global economy. The short-term effects have already appeared, and have taken on the appearance of an economic war of attrition. Moreover, in the medium–long term, the ageing demographics in Europe and Asia are expected to slow growth.
Turning our eyes to the Japanese domestic market, consumption and investment structures are changing with population aging and digitalization. Demand for human services, particularly medical care and nursing, is increasing. In these fields, the growing demand cannot be adequately addressed if productivity cannot be increased, and human resources secured. To that end, it is necessary to change labor-intensive industries through new technologies, centering on information communications technology (ICT) and robotics. Domestic capital investment, such as investment in labor-reduction trends, is also increasing; however, this growth is modest compared with the growth in company profits. Inadequate investment in human resources, such as new technology introduction and training, will disturb improvements in productivity. Thus, it will become impossible to break from a shrinking economy due to a lack of human resources.
While factoring in the difficult overseas economic environment, responses to structural changes in domestic demand are required for investment and to secure human resources from both domestic and overseas regions. This may well be the key to revitalizing the economy.


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Economic Forecast 49th FY2022-FY2035



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Economic Forecast 48th FY2021-FY2035


Japan’s post-COVID economy

- DX acceleration is a path to green growth
- Growth strategy under decarbonization constraints

Economic Forecast 47th FY2020-FY2035

Tatsuo KOBAYASHITetsuaki TAKANOSumio SARUYAMAKatsuaki OCHIAIKyoko DEGUCHIHirofumi KAWASAKITatsujiro SUZUKIHikaru KOBAYASHI/ Yuichi ARITA Trainee Economist (The House of Representatives)/ Tetsuji NAKAHARA Trainee Economist (HIGASHI-NIPPON BANK)/ Shunya MATSUO Trainee Economist (CHUBU Electric Power)


Economy before and after the Coronavirus Crisis

- Real GDP level will fall by 2% due to rapid expansion of debt
- Prolonged virus outbreak and intensified international friction will result in “nightmare scenario”

Economic Forecast 47th FY2020-FY2035



Toward Human Capital Investment to Support Domestic Demand

~The Key to Growth in a Shrinking Economy~

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030

Saeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIAkira TANAKARyo HASUMI/ Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)/ Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)/ Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)