Trade Friction Impact becomes Apparent
―Policy response and political trends considered important―
JCER released March 2019 forecast on Asian Economies. The original report in Japanese is here.
China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook
- 2018 Q4 GDP growth slowed from Q3 due to a lack of momentum in domestic and foreign demand. ASEAN4 economies presented a mixed picture; external demand was weak, while domestic demand showed steady growth.
- The 2019 GDP outlook for China has been revised upward. Recent developments in US-China trade talks have partially eased concerns of a slowdown. New financial policies are expected to lift domestic demand.
- The economic outlook of ASEAN4 for 2019 has been lowered from our previous forecast. Domestic demand growth including consumption will remain steady, while the slowdown in exports will lower GDP growth. The GDP growth rate is expected to bottom out in the 1st half of 2019, given the ongoing trade talks.
【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】
(Note) Previous forecasts from December 2018 in parentheses. (Source) Haver Analytics, forecasts by JCER
This forecast is a part of the Short Term forecast No.177.
-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect
Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies
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Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1