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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (March 2019 forecast /2019Q1-2021Q1)

Trade Friction Impact becomes Apparent

―Policy response and political trends considered important―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Deputy Director:Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist
Makoto KOBARI Trainee Economist
   
Shota MUROMOTO Trainee Economist
   

2019/03/05

JCER released March 2019 forecast on Asian Economies. The original report in Japanese is here

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • 2018 Q4 GDP growth slowed from Q3 due to a lack of momentum in domestic and foreign demand. ASEAN4 economies presented a mixed picture; external demand was weak, while domestic demand showed steady growth.
  • The 2019 GDP outlook for China has been revised upward. Recent developments in US-China trade talks have partially eased concerns of a slowdown. New financial policies are expected to lift domestic demand.
  • The economic outlook of ASEAN4 for 2019 has been lowered from our previous forecast. Domestic demand growth including consumption will remain steady, while the slowdown in exports will lower GDP growth. The GDP growth rate is expected to bottom out in the 1st half of 2019, given the ongoing trade talks.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】


(Note) Previous forecasts from December 2018 in parentheses. (Source) Haver Analytics, forecasts by JCER

This forecast is a part of the Short Term forecast No.177.

2022/03/17

Currently Limited Negative Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2022 forecast 2022Q1-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Riki KOHANA Trainee Economist

2022/02/18

Sweden ranks first globally in Digital Potential

-- Japan ranks 16th in JCER’s newly developed index

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Eriko TAKAHASHIAtsushi TOMIYAMA

2021/12/22

Moderate Recovery in China and ASEAN4 Supported by Private Consumption

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist

2021/12/15

China to become the world’s largest economy in 2033

-- Korea set to overtake Japan in 2027 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2021 Issue 2021-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMATetsuaki TAKANOEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURA/ Daisuke MARUYAMA/ Masashi UEHARAGo YAMADA

2021/10/25

$1.7 trillion lost because of COVID-19 crisis in Asia

-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Daisuke MARUYAMA Economist/ Tetsuaki TAKANO