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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (March 2019 forecast /2019Q1-2021Q1)

Trade Friction Impact becomes Apparent

―Policy response and political trends considered important―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Deputy Director:Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist
Makoto KOBARI Trainee Economist
   
Shota MUROMOTO Trainee Economist
   

2019/03/05

JCER released March 2019 forecast on Asian Economies. The original report in Japanese is here

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • 2018 Q4 GDP growth slowed from Q3 due to a lack of momentum in domestic and foreign demand. ASEAN4 economies presented a mixed picture; external demand was weak, while domestic demand showed steady growth.
  • The 2019 GDP outlook for China has been revised upward. Recent developments in US-China trade talks have partially eased concerns of a slowdown. New financial policies are expected to lift domestic demand.
  • The economic outlook of ASEAN4 for 2019 has been lowered from our previous forecast. Domestic demand growth including consumption will remain steady, while the slowdown in exports will lower GDP growth. The GDP growth rate is expected to bottom out in the 1st half of 2019, given the ongoing trade talks.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】


(Note) Previous forecasts from December 2018 in parentheses. (Source) Haver Analytics, forecasts by JCER

This forecast is a part of the Short Term forecast No.177.

2019/03/05

Trade Friction Impact becomes Apparent

―Policy response and political trends considered important―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2019 forecast 2019Q1-2021Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Deputy Director:Takashi MIYAZAKI/ Makoto KOBARI Trainee Economist/ Shota MUROMOTO Trainee Economist

2018/12/05

Emerging cities, sinking cities in Asia by 2030

Medium-Term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2018 Issue 2018-2030

Masashi UEHARAEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURAAkihiko YOKOO/ Kazuya MANABE Economist/ Motohiko KITAHARAGo YAMADA

2018/12/04

Effects of Rate Hikes and Trade Friction Surfacing

―External and Domestic Demand Lacking Vigor―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2018 forecast 2018Q4-2021Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Takashi MIYAZAKI/ Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Sachie OGAWA Trainee Economist/ Hidekazu TAKAGI Trainee Economist/ Haruka YANE

2018/08/30

Moderate Growth led by Steady Domestic Demand

―Concern deepens over Trade Friction and Currency Depreciation

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies August 2018 forecast 2018Q3~2020Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Hisatoshi AOYAMA Trainee Economists/ Kenta DOMOTO Trainee Economists/ Yutaro YAMADA Trainee Economists

2018/02/28

Asian export rebound to fuel faster economic growth in 2018

―Higher interest rates and weaker smartphone demand are downside risks

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies February 2018 Issue 2018Q1-2019Q4

Research Director:Masashi UEHARA/ Deputy Director:Kengo TAHARAEriko TAKAHASHI/ Hiroyuki MOTEGI Economist/ Kazuya MANABE Trainee Economist