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Asian Economic Forecast Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies (December 2024 Issue/ 2024-2035)

Asian Economies in Turmoil Under the Trump Administration

― China’s Structural Risks Still Remain

Director:Toshihiro TONISHI
  Principal Economist
Akira TANAKA
  Principal Economist
Tamaki SAKURA
  Research Fellow
Go YAMADA
  Principal Economist
Yasumasa SHIMIZU
  Head of Asia Cooperation Office / Principal Economist

2024/12/18

The Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) released its 10th Medium-term Asian Economic Forecast, which projects GDP growth for 18 countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific region, from 2024 through 2035.

The forecast covers 15 major Asian countries and regions, and the U.S., Australia and Canada for comparison. It extends over a time horizon of 12 years (2024-2035), six years longer than the IMF’s (International Monetary Fund) World Economic Outlook, which provides forecasts through 2029. Unlike the Asian Development Bank, which focuses on the current growth rate of developing countries in Asia, JCER’s Asian Outlook is a long-term, comprehensive forecast of the Asian economy.

In this report, we base our forecast on the “Digital Potential” (JCER Digital Potential Index) and the policies of the incoming Trump administration.

Real GDP Growth Rates of 18 Countries/ Regions

Source: IMF, forecast by JCER



2025/12/15

Asia Sustains Growth Amid The Uncertainty of US Tariffs

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2025 Issue 2025-2040

Director:Toshihiro TONISHIAkira TANAKATamaki SAKURAEriko TAKAHASHIGo YAMADAYasumasa SHIMIZU

2024/12/18

Asian Economies in Turmoil Under the Trump Administration

― China’s Structural Risks Still Remain

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2024 Issue 2024-2035

Director:Toshihiro TONISHIAkira TANAKATamaki SAKURAGo YAMADAYasumasa SHIMIZU

2023/12/18

China’s Growth Rate Below 3% after 2029

― Zero Growth in 2027 if Real Estate Bubble Bursts

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2023 Issue 2023-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMAAkira TANAKATamaki SAKURAGo YAMADAYasumasa SHIMIZU

2022/12/15

China’s GDP will not surpass that of the U.S.

-- Taiwan set to overtake Japan in 2022 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2022 Issue 2022-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMAAkira TANAKATamaki SAKURAGo YAMADAMasashi UEHARAYasumasa SHIMIZUYoshiki SHIMODA

2022/06/14

China’s Zero-COVID Policy Puts Downward Pressures on China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2022 forecast 2022Q2-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABAAkira TANAKA