China to become the world’s largest economy in 2033

The Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) released its 7th Medium-term Asian Economic Forecast, which projects GDP growth for 18 countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific region, from 2021 through 2035.

The forecast covers 15 major Asian countries and regions, and the U.S., Australia and Canada for comparison. It extends over a time horizon of 15 years (2021-2035), nine years longer than the IMF’s (International Monetary Fund) World Economic Outlook, which provides forecasts through 2026. Unlike the Asian Development Bank, which focuses on the current growth rate of developing countries in Asia, JCER’s Asian Outlook is a long-term, comprehensive forecast of the Asian economy.

In this report, we calculate the digital potential of each country (“JCER Digital Potential Index”), and used the index as a basis for estimating Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The higher the digital potential, the more likely a country will be able to promote digital transformation (DX), key to economic growth, and boost labor productivity. In addition to the baseline scenario, our report includes various analyses of risk scenarios, and other related topics.

This Asian Economic Forecast was reported on the Nikkei Asian Review on December 15, 2021.