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Asia Forecast Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies (December 2021 Issue/ 2021-2035)

China to become the world’s largest economy in 2033

-- Korea set to overtake Japan in 2027 in terms of GDP per capita

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMA
  Principal Economist
Tetsuaki TAKANO
  Senior Economist
Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Tamaki SAKURA
  Economist
Daisuke MARUYAMA
   
Masashi UEHARA
  Principal Economist
Go YAMADA
  Principal Economist

2021/12/15

The Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) released its 7th Medium-term Asian Economic Forecast, which projects GDP growth for 18 countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific region, from 2021 through 2035.

The forecast covers 15 major Asian countries and regions, and the U.S., Australia and Canada for comparison. It extends over a time horizon of 15 years (2021-2035), nine years longer than the IMF’s (International Monetary Fund) World Economic Outlook, which provides forecasts through 2026. Unlike the Asian Development Bank, which focuses on the current growth rate of developing countries in Asia, JCER’s Asian Outlook is a long-term, comprehensive forecast of the Asian economy.

In this report, we calculate the digital potential of each country (“JCER Digital Potential Index”), and used the index as a basis for estimating Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The higher the digital potential, the more likely a country will be able to promote digital transformation (DX), key to economic growth, and boost labor productivity. In addition to the baseline scenario, our report includes various analyses of risk scenarios, and other related topics.

The U.S.-China reversal is delayed by four years from previous forecast

Source: Haver Analytics, forecast by JCER

This Asian Economic Forecast was reported on the Nikkei Asian Review on December 15, 2021.

2021/12/22

Moderate recovery in China and ASEAN4 supported by private consumption

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist

2021/12/15

China to become the world’s largest economy in 2033

-- Korea set to overtake Japan in 2027 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2021 Issue 2021-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMATetsuaki TAKANOEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURA/ Daisuke MARUYAMA/ Masashi UEHARAGo YAMADA

2021/10/25

$1.7 trillion lost because of COVID-19 crisis in Asia

-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Daisuke MARUYAMA Economist/ Tetsuaki TAKANO

2021/09/15

A Pause in Economic Recovery Caused by the Delta Variant

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2021 forecast 2021Q3-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA

2021/06/15

Robust External Demand will Support China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2021 forecast 2021Q2-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKATakashi MIYAZAKI